Timing the Sale - Understanding the Listing Cycle, Trends and Seasons
By Paul Kounnas
Once the decision to sell a property has been made. The next question is usually “when”?
Stock levels (supply) play such a crucial role in the behaviour of buyers (demand) and therefore the short term performance of a real estate market.
In 2023, even though mortgage rates were increasing, historically low stock levels drove property prices higher across Melbourne, as buyers found themselves competing for less available properties.
There are predictable periods (trends) throughout the calendar year when experienced market operators know stock levels will be tight and other times stock levels will be elevated, inadvertently favouring buyers.
There tends to be 5 unofficial market cycles throughout the calendar year.
New Year Listings
These tend to be listed after Australia Day with the intention of selling before Easter (which comes relatively early in the year). With the lack of stock over December and January creating pent-up buyer demand, this can be a reasonable time to sell.
Particularly those that are in the market first to engage New Year buyers. There was an abnormally high number of New Year listings, coming to market prior to Australia Day in 2024.
Post – Easter Autumn Market
Campaigns in this part of the year have the intention of getting sold before winter sets in. By this time of year, the market has usually found its level and can be a high transaction period as there is a fairly good understanding for buyers and sellers as to where the market price is as the year settles in.
Winter Market
Stock levels are generally lower during winter. Admittedly many properties don’t present their best in winter.
However, winter should not be instantly dismissed as a poor season to sell. Stock levels tend to reduce significantly more than demand does during winter, creating clear advantages to the winter property sellers.
Spring Market
Spring is by far the most overrated time of year to sell. Even during boom years, there are clear examples where the clearance rates softened as excess stock on market clashes with diluted buyer demand. A great strategy can be to sell in winter with a long settlement and buy in spring when listing numbers are at their highest.
Pre – Christmas Market
Each year the excess stock levels from the spring begins to subside by early to mid November. This creates a savvy selling opportunity for the unsold stock from earlier in the year, and/or those who suddenly decide to sell pre-Christmas.
The unexpected interest rate increase in November 2023 created a last minute surge of pre-Christmas listings and was likely a contributing factor to abnormally high listing numbers in January 2024.
It usually surprises most people how many transactions are completed in late November and December, many ‘off-market’.
If the market is rising, you can afford to be patient and relaxed about the timing of the sale. When the market is falling, waiting for a better season may not be your best option.
It’s the classic ‘market conditions’ vs ‘selling season’ conundrum.
